Trump Election Odds Soar To 72% On Crypto Prediction Market
In July 2024, after the assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania, Donald Trump's odds of winning the election rose to 72% on Polymarket, which settles bets in USDC. This story covers the market move as it happened, and a note at the bottom explains what came next.
Quick Take
- Former President Donald Trump’s odds of winning the 2024 election soared to 72% on Polymarket.
- The incident boosted Trump-themed cryptocurrency tokens and the overall crypto market, reflecting strong trader sentiments.
- Trump’s support for crypto and the Republican platform’s stance against regulatory crackdowns on the industry have bolstered his position among crypto enthusiasts.
Former President Donald Trump’s probability of retaking the White House skyrocketed on Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, after the assassination attempt during a rally in Pennsylvania.
The incident not only heightened Trump’s chances in the eyes of traders but also sent shockwaves through the cryptocurrency market, reflecting the volatile intersection of politics and digital assets.
Polymarket Presidential Election Winner 2024, July 15, 2024
Trump Rally Violence
The rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, took a violent turn on July 13, 2024, when Trump was injured by a bullet. Secret Service agents swiftly escorted the Republican presidential candidate offstage.
Despite the chaos, Trump appeared defiant, pumping his fist in the air with blood visible on his face, a moment captured and widely circulated on social media. The shooting resulted in the death of the suspected gunman and a rally attendee, as well as several other injuries.
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Market Reactions
Following the incident, “Yes” shares in Polymarket’s contract predicting a Trump victory in November climbed from 60 cents to 72 cents, indicating a 72% probability of his re-election success.
Polymarket, which operates on the Polygon blockchain, allows traders to place bets using the stablecoin USDC, settled in smart contracts.
The market’s reaction extended beyond prediction contracts. Trump-themed meme tokens, part of the PoliFi series, also experienced a surge. MAGA tokens rose by 34% to $8.38, and TREMP tokens increased by 67% to $0.6471, according to CoinGecko data.
Conversely, BODEN tokens, associated with incumbent President Joe Biden, fell by 15% to $0.0333115, highlighting the stark contrast in market sentiment towards the two candidates.
Final Thoughts
Founded by Shayne Coplan four years ago, Polymarket has seen record trading volumes in 2024, driven by the fervor surrounding the U.S. presidential election. The contract predicting the election winner has amassed $258 million in bets, setting a new record for crypto-based prediction markets and all prediction markets.
Traditional betting platforms like PredictIt also reflected a similar trend. Trump shares on PredictIt climbed from 59 cents to 67 cents post-incident.
This alignment between crypto-based and fiat-based prediction markets underscores the widespread belief in Trump’s strengthened electoral prospects.
As the 2024 election approaches, the interplay between Trump’s candidacy, his pro-crypto stance, and the market’s reaction will continue to be a focal point for traders and political analysts alike.
What Happened Next
Trump won the Nov. 5, 2024 election with 312 electoral votes, according to the National Archives, and Polymarket's contract paid out on "Yes." The election-winner market finished with about $3.69 billion in trading volume, according to Polymarket. Polymarket agreed in a 2022 CFTC order to pay a $1.4 million penalty and wind down markets that didn't comply with US commodities law. It now runs a separate platform for US users, Polymarket US.
About the author
Robert Farrington, Founder And Editor-In-Chief
Robert Farrington is the Founder and Editor-in-Chief of Cult of Money, the leading resource for personal finance for the crypto-curious. Since diving into cryptocurrency in 2016, he has personally researched, tested, and written extensively about Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi, NFTs, staking, crypto taxes, and how digital assets fit into real-world financial planning.
He is also the founder of The College Investor (one of the largest personal finance sites) and a Forbes contributor. Robert holds a BA in Political Science and an MBA in Entrepreneurship from UC San Diego.